30 days, 50 matches. Goals, Own Goals, Red Cards, Controversy, Passion, and Oh Yeah, VAR. Lots and lots of VAR. You name it, Euro 2020 has provided them all. It has all built up to tomorrow, as we finally reach our climax. Make no mistake, there are no complaints, as the foreplay we endured was all worth it.
The tournament has been enthralling thus far. I, along with all of you are eagerly anticipating tomorrow's conclusion. I will preface this blog by saying that while my team, Germany, may not be competing in the final and I'm still licking my wounds, it would be remiss of me to not acknowledge that these two teams have been arguably the best in the competition. Italy was labelled as a Dark Horse at the beginning of the tournament by several, a stance in which I personally disagreed with. I am of the opinion that a country with such rich footballing tradition and history, 4 World Cup titles and 1 European Championship title, should never be disrespected with such a tag. Italy are and have always been footballing giants. The Italians boast an incredibly talented team, I just did not know how to classify them. I certainly thought France was clear cut favorites. Nonetheless they're here and its fully deserved.
Now onto England...ugh. Well, where do I start? At the beginning of the competition I described England as Pretenders; that went horribly wrong to say the least. I'll write my apology don't worry. I honestly wish I can insert that little rolling eye emoji when going through the section I specified for the English. Anyways, I'm straying.
I'll aim to identify keys to to winning the matchup for both teams (in my opinion), through my personal eye test and some fun facts I've gathered throughout the Championships thus far.
Keys to Winning the Matchup: Italy
The Italians have had an incredible campaign. Absolutely setting the tournament ablaze with their flair and expansive football. Roberto Mancini has broken the stereotype of Italian gritty football. Gone are the days where the Italians score 1 goal and "lock up shop". As you can see in the image:
The Italians have gone 33 games unbeaten, 2 games shy of the Spanish national team record from 2007-2009.
Italy have not lost in almost 3 years. They cruised through the group stages, winning 3-0, 3-0 and 1-0 vs Turkey, Switzerland and Wales respectively. However, since then, its been nothing but a rocky road for the "Azzurri".
It's been a grind out victory repeatedly: Going to extra time vs. Austria, narrowly edging out Belgium 2-1, then finally, conquering the Spanish on penalties in the semi-final.
Bar the Belgium game, it can be argued that Italy was outplayed and exposed during the knockout phase. But this is knockout football. The goal is to survive and advance. This also illustrates that they are a flexible team and can adapt to their opponent. The Italians have proven that they can take several punches. I think this will prove to work out in their benefit in the final. They have been up against top opposition every step of the way since the quarter-finals, proving that the English won't phase them.
With their high intensity, pressing of the football, I believe that they will take the game to England and play positively from the get go. Italy moves the ball quickly through and around the final third. This won't be easy for them to execute however, as the English have been nothing short of outstanding defensively this tournament. You can also argue though, that with the caliber of The Midfield Three that they have, in Jorginho, Verratti and Barella, this team can break down anyone.
Barella is going to be the key. He is your prototype box-to-box midfielder and with the English sitting back looking to break on the counter, his energy in midfield will be pivotal in terms of ball recovery and supporting Immobile in the final third.
Another key player for Italy would be Emerson. With the loss of Spinazzola, Emerson now has to fill the void left by the fullback. Spinazzola bombed forward down the flank which allowed Lorenzo Insigne the chance to cut inside and play a more central role to support in the final third. This helped Italy both in terms of their link-up play and the speedy ball recovery they employ whenever conceding possession of the football.
While the full-back's overlapping would be important to provide crossing and to free room for Insigne, perhaps even more importantly is his ability to track back. The Italians love to play a high line which help them camp their opposition in their own half and get back the ball quickly. However, it is well documented that Bonucci and Chiellini are not the fastest. Spinazzola's ability to track back with pace greatly allows the Italians the chance to play the style they enjoy and now a disciplined performance would be required of Emerson.
Ultimately, I think if Italy are going to win this game they need to execute their style and play to their strengths. They're going to need to beat England early. I believe that they have to win this game within the 90 minutes. This is something I will now expand upon in my English section of my blog.
With that said, here is how I think the Italians will line-up:
The arrow is basically just to indicate that Emerson is going to play more of a left-wing back role rather than the traditional left back position.
Keys to Winning the Matchup: England
It has finally happened. After 55 years of torture, England can once again say that they are in the final of a major International competition.
At the beginning of the tournament I labelled the English as Pretenders. I owe them an apology.
I did not believe in the coach, Gareth Southgate. However, he has proved me as well as many other critics wrong. As the tournament began England started off in typical fashion; 1-0 win over Croatia and then just a gruesome, boring 0-0 stalemate with Scotland.
There were echoes of "Here we go again" from everyone including myself. This group however has shown how united they are, and how much they believe in their manager. They slowly grew into the tournament. The 2-0 win over Germany greatly boosted the team's confidence, which they needed to push on. England overcame a team that have seemingly had their number for years on-end.
Just as Italy, England have proven to be a very adaptable team. In the win versus Germany, they managed to change their formation to 3 in the back and utilize wing-backs, in an attempt to nullify the threat the German wing-backs provided. It was executed to perfection as they never really seemed phased against what really was, 'a poor German Team'. Southgate then adapted to his opposition again, reverting to the 4-2-3-1 against Ukraine, where England comfortably won 4-0. He unleashed the full attacking potential that this England team is capable of and so many have been yearning for.
However the real measuring stick for me came in the semi-final, when England went down 1-0 vs. Denmark. Surely they were going to fold right? Nope. The English team quickly equalized and went on to win in extra time. England had not conceded a goal all tournament long and for them to win given those circumstances, tells me that this team may be different. The team just seems in a different place mentally. However, Italy are a different beast and will be by far the sternest opposition they face. England are a young team but all of their players have "big game experience". There are two sides to the coin. They can either rise to the occasion or fold under the enormous pressure of having to play a final in front of their home crowd for the first time in 55 years. The former is what they'll have to do to win.
Against Italy I am pretty sure, England's game plan is going to be to sit back, absorb pressure and attack Italy on the counter.
(@PremierLeaguePanel is a page I follow on Twitter. This guy provides great in-depth football analysis and I suggest you follow his page if you'd like.)
I agree with the concept shown above; that this will be a way to counter Italy's threats. However, I'm not sure England have the personnel in midfield to execute such a style. Rice and Phillips have both been outstanding this competition. They do all the dirty work in the midfield and the double-pivot has been a key component to England's defensive solidarity. However, I can't see either of them having the know-how to play quick passes intricately to unlock the Italians. Nor do I view Mason Mount as a player to burst through the midfield like a Kevin De Bruyne. Knowing Southgate, there is no chance he tries to play toe-to-toe with Italy. For once, I agree with him. This game suits England.
They can drop back deep and with the pace that Sterling and Saka provide on the wings, they can be lethal on the counter.
Here is how I think England will line-up tomorrow:
Honestly, this is going to be a perfect chess match really. Italy are going to get to play how they want and England are getting to play a style that they have mastered all tournament.
Something truly pivotal for me, will be the duration of this game. I think the longer this game goes, the better it will be for England. Their squad is deeper. They have the likes of Rashford, Sancho, Grealish and Foden just to name a few to bring off the bench. Imagine having those guys to bring on to run at the dead Italian legs.
Concluding Remarks
In summary, I think both teams are evenly matched. Its really tough to pick a winner and I hate to be someone to lean on the fence. I have come to terms with accepting that it won't be the worst thing in the world if it does in fact 'come home'. There are plenty United players in the England squad, and it would be pretty sweet for those guys to taste some silverware after such a tough season, losing in the Europa league final. Also, Harry Kane, one of my favorite players in the Premier League, my FPL savior, deserves this win after such a tough trophy drought with the Spurs.
However, I love the Italian storyline as well; unbeaten and totally reshaping a mold of football they followed for generations.
So what I will do is describe three situations:
1. If the game is over by 90 minutes? 🇮🇹
I think Italy wins 2-1.
2. If the game goes into extra-time? 🏴
Because of England's significant gap of talent in their depth, they will win.
(They are also extremely fit. Did anyone see Kyle Walker in extra-time vs. Denmark? Someone get the drug tests out please! I'm joking obviously, but after having gone into extra-time twice, I think Italy would be absolutely spent if they have to go into extra-time again.)
3. If the game goes into penalties? 🏴
Weirdly enough, no team has been able to win two penalty shoot-outs in either the Euros or Copa America. I guess that's due to how random the whole thing is. It balances itself out. England does not have the greatest history with spot kicks but I think if it does eventually go to penalties, the odds are in their favor to win.
I hope that by reading this blog, you enjoy the Euro Final that much more, and let's hope for a great, fairly contested matchup!
P.S Just for a bit of fun I made a TikTok showcasing a Combined 11 of both teams:
- J. Forte
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