The first round of the the NBA Playoffs have recently concluded, with the second round just underway...
The Nets/Bucks and Hawks/76ers have both started, but I wanted to wait on the the Clippers/Mavs series to tackle my round 2 bracket as a collective. Some may view it as a bit of cheating, but hey, no series is won in just one game (as we recently saw with the Clippers and the Mavs). The Clippers went down 2-0 to Mavericks but stormed back to clinch the series. As the old cliché goes, the playoffs are a marathon, not a sprint.
With that said, let's just take a quick recap of what my first round preview looked like so I can discuss where I was right and wrong.
As you can see I'm pretty embarrassed that the team that I picked to win the entire thing, the Los Angles Lakers, got bounced in the first round.
However, allow me to defend myself I did make that prediction on the premise that the Lakers would be fully healthy. Losing Anthony Davis and LeBron not being at 100%, definitely played a significant role in determining the outcome of the series. With that said, take nothing away from the Suns, who definitely deserved to progress, after such an excellent regular season.
Devin Booker had his coming out party, averaging 29.7 points, 5 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game in the series. He was the difference between the two teams. His elite shot-making in game 6; going 8/10 from 3 and hanging 47 points on the Lakers, definitely earning himself some overdue plaudits.
Moving on, the Denver-Portland series was really fun. Nikola Jokić once again proved why he is the MVP of the league. Stuffing the stat sheet, "The Joker" quietly averaged 33 points, 10.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists. I swear Jokić just has these big numbers every game and it's only coming to the end that you would notice, "Wow. He had 30?"
This was an even more impressive feat as Denver did not have Jamal Murray or Will Barton for the series. Denver got great production from role players such as Campazzo, Austin Rivers and Monté Morris. 'Production' I did not foresee, which is why I went with the Blazers. I'm happy this panned out the way it did though, as Jokić keeps solidifying his MVP case. The Blazers supporting cast however was abysmal. Nurkić, McCollum and Robert Covington all failed to provide reliable support for Damian Lillard throughout the course of the series which ultimately, was the difference between the teams in the series.
Conclusively, to end my mini recap, the Hawks washed away the Knicks. Powered by an impressive performance by Trae Young who is honestly having the time of his life right now.
Honestly, I've never been high on Trae Young, I always thought that in the playoffs, teams would expose him on the defensive end of the floor, negating any production he would put up on the offensive end.
I was wrong.
Trae is showing out, averaging 30.2 points and 9.8 assists in the playoffs. Trae ripped the Knicks to shreds, silencing the Garden in the process, and earning himself his moment this early on in his career.
He also talks a whole lot of trash, which I am definitely here for. I picked the Knicks because they played lock down defence and had the home court advantage. Shoutout to the New York fans who were massive. However, Julius Randle who averaged 37.7 points against the Hawks in the regular season somehow decided to go AWOL for the entire series. Randle gave the Knicks next to nothing, and when you end up relying on a 32-year old Derrick Rose for 1st option production, you're ultimately going to lose.
All in all, I went 5/8 in my first round predictions, which I'm pretty disappointed with, but that's how the cookie crumble sometimes. I am using it as a learning experience. As my CAPE Literature teacher once told me, "Once you are able to state your case and support it with the relevant evidence (quotations/statistics), your perception on things, can never be wrong", which I think I did. So there! That's how I'm going to deal with it (sorry not sorry).
Okay, enough of my whining, let me redeem myself, onto Round 2 !
Round Two
Eastern Conference
The Hawks are already up 1-0 in this series. They shot the lights out from 3, hitting 20-47 attempts, and still, Philly only lost by 4 points. However, this series is going to boil down to one thing: Can Joel Embiid stay healthy? I think it's as simple as that. Embiid tore his meniscus against the Wizards. He battled through it in game 1 and only decided to dominate in the 4th quarter. The Hawks have no answer for Embiid. Contrastingly, the 76ers can throw a lot of good perimeter defenders at Trae Young such as Ben Simmons, Thybulle and Danny Green. I think Simmons has to be the primary defender on Young though, because the Sixers tried using Green as the primary defender on Young and it got ugly quick.
For example, here's a successful possession of Ben Simmons guarding Trae Young:
Simmons fights through the screen, recovers and affects Trae's signature floater. He's going to have to continue to disrupt Trae like this throughout the series so he doesn't get into a rhythm. Atlanta have surrounded Trae with great shooters, so Philly must be careful not to be too reactive and double Trae too early.
That being said, here is why I think Philly would win:
This. This right here. Embiid gets a mismatch with Bogdanović and immediately attacks. The Hawks have no answer for this guy, and if Embiid is healthy and aggressive, there is no question that Embiid will dominate and be the best player on the floor. Even Clint Capela is simply too small.
My Prediction: 76ers 4 vs. Hawks 2
Another series, one game in, the Nets lost James Harden just 47 seconds into game 1. They still managed to take a 1-0 lead into the series, which was, quite frankly, scary. Listen. I hate the Nets but their offensive power is too good to go unrecognized. However, the Bucks did a lot to help them in this game.
Here's a typical example of what the Bucks should NOT do:
This is just ugly offense. Why is Jeff Teague pulling up for 3 with so much time remaining on the shot clock? More importantly, why is Jeff Teague on the floor? These are questions we will never get the answer to. The injury to DiVincenzo has really hurt the Bucks. Coach Budenholzer of the Bucks has clearly not learned from last season's mistakes: Playing Giannis, Middleton and Holiday just around 35 minutes; a decision that proved to be detrimental in last season's playoffs against the Heat.
And based on this tweet it is clear that he plans on doing the same. Milwaukee fans look away. Really Mike we're doing this again ? You refuse to play your best players 40+ minutes? Keep them fresh for what exactly? This is the playoffs, there is no tomorrow.
'Insanity' is defined as, 'doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result'.
Playoffs are about adjustments and I have 0 faith that Budenholzer is going to adapt. This can get ugly fast if he continues to think like this.
Furthermore, the Nets who are known for their 3 incredible isolation scorers, have gained chemistry on offence. Have a look at that ball movement. So these guys can kill you in isolation and are willing passers? You've got to be kidding me. Honestly, I believe the Bucks can beat the Nets. The Nets lack rim protection, so the Bucks need to be more aggressive in terms of attacking the basket, I felt like they got too 3-point happy in game 1. However, Coach Budenholzer puts too much doubt in my mind. Hopefully he proves me wrong, because sheesh I hate the Nets and what they represent (in terms of superstars just coming together and making a title run.)
N.B: James Harden's hamstring injury can play a pivotal role in deciding this series, as he is also out for game 2.
My Prediction: Nets 4 vs. Bucks 2
Western Conference
After beating the Mavericks in seven games, the Clippers are now battle tested. However, two things can be true. While Luka was transcendent in the series, other than Dončić, the Mavs really aren't that good of a team. You can argue that if Porziņģis was mildly competent, the Mavs win the series.
I think Kawhi willed the Clippers to winning this series. I'm not sure his body can take on that load. It begs the question:
Can Kawhi rely on Paul George in this upcoming series?
For me, the answer is: No.
Paul George hasn't proven that he can win when the lights are the brightest. I think the Jazz, with a budding superstar in Donovan Mitchell, are hungry after last season's disappointing first round exit to the Nuggets in 7. They have one of the best defensive players in the league in Rudy Gobert, their ball movement is incredible and they are lethal 3-point shooters.
The Clippers were awful defensively against a team that just has one legitimate threat on offense in Luka. What happens when they come up against the likes of Conley, Bogdanović, Ingles and Clarkson? This Utah team has not gotten enough respect for their regular season and I think they're going to play with that hunch on their back. They took the season series 2-1 vs. the Clippers.
My initial bracket had the Clippers beating the Jazz but I'm prepared to flip that pick after having watched both teams in their first series. I think Utah are the better team overall. The Clippers can boast that they have the better player in Kawhi for the series, but Donovan Mitchell does not care about that. Averaging 28.5 points this post season, I think he is primed to have another break out moment.
My Prediction: Jazz 4 vs. Clippers 3
For me I think the series is going to come down to this: Who will be the best player on the floor?
This Suns-Nuggets matchup also has a great narrative behind it, as people were touting CP3 for MVP over Jokić. There are still concerns over the health of Chris Paul after he suffered a shoulder injury in the Lakers series. However, Denver is banged up also, with no Murray or Dozier, and with Barton being questionable to return.
But here is the million dollar question:
What do the Suns do to stop Jokić?
If they double him, he will kick it out and you also can't leave Ayton on an island with Jokić. He'll battle, but Jokić will get his numbers. Denver will put Aaron Gordon on Booker, who can hold his own in the matchup. Don't get me wrong, Book will still Cook, but Gordon has been tremendous on the defensive side of the floor this post-season. Denver is also really long. The Suns are still a pretty small team and I can see Mike Malone exploiting this mismatch. This series has the potential to be an enthralling encounter and I would classify it as a "pick em' ". Two evenly matched teams, well-coached... Heck. Here is their head-to-head record in the regular season:
As you can see, all tight affairs. This one goes seven for me and I'm picking Denver by a hair. This is the Suns' first go in the playoffs in so long, whereas this Denver team has been here before, and I think their experience gets them over the hump.
My Prediction: Nuggets 4 vs. Suns 3
Conclusively, the conference semi-finals are going to be very engaging and we should all look forward to some great match-ups. See you guys next time, where hopefully I can say that I got all my predictions right this time!
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